Ricardo Gómez-Carrera

Work in Progress

• The Long-Term Effects of Human Capital Investments
  [Description]
  My work in progress studies how early-life human capital investments shape long-term educational and labor market outcomes. I focus on understanding how these policies affect different social groups and contribute to reducing inequality of opportunity. In particular, I compare the impacts of targeted (means-tested) and universal policies to assess how different designs shape long-run inequality and mobility.
• Tax Design, Firm Organization, and Resource Allocation
  with Karan Mishra
  [Description]
  This project examines how corporate tax design influences firm organization, labor market outcomes, and the allocation of capital and labor. It studies how tax-induced distortions shape firm boundaries, investment decisions, and survival, and how these micro-level responses affect productivity and economic efficiency in developing economies.
• Education Systems and Inequality over Two Centuries
  [Description]
  This project studies how long-term changes in education access and education quality relate to income inequality across countries. Using historical cross-country data since the 19th century, it examines how different trajectories of educational expansion shape inequality dynamics over time, and how the balance between expanding access and improving quality affects long-run economic and social outcomes.

Publications

• Sectoral Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19: Evidence from Mexico
  with Ricardo Chavarin and Alfredo Salgado
  Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 4(1), 2023. Recipient of the 2024 Latin American Journal of Central Banking Special Issue Award (second place).
  [Paper] [Abstract]
  The COVID-19 pandemic has caused both supply and demand shocks, but their relative importance has varied over time and across sectors. Using a sign-restricted structural Bayesian VAR, this paper studies how supply and demand factors shaped sectoral economic activity and prices in Mexico during the pandemic. We find that during the peak contraction in 2020 Q2, domestic demand shocks were the dominant driver of fluctuations across most sectors. External demand, external supply, and exchange rate shocks also played important roles in explaining GDP movements. Since early 2021, external supply shocks have contributed negatively to industrial production and several other sectors, while domestic and foreign demand have generally supported the recovery.

Working Papers

• From Playtime to Primetime. The Medium-term Effects of Compulsory Preschool in Mexico
  Recipient of an honorable mention at the 36th International Master Thesis Competition in Economics and Finance.
  [Paper] [Abstract]
  Preschool programs have expanded rapidly in low and middle income countries, but concerns remain about their quality and effectiveness. This study evaluates the impact of Mexico's preschool mandate on primary school performance using a staggered difference in differences design. The reform increased Grade 5 test scores by 0.05 to 0.16 standard deviations but also widened gaps between highly and weakly marginalized localities. Smaller preschool groups and longer attendance improved cognitive outcomes despite a higher share of low skilled teachers. The results highlight the importance of targeting quality improvements when expanding early childhood education.
  Media: Savage Minds
• Starting Strong: Medium- and Longer-run Benefits of Mexico's Universal Preschool Mandate
  with Jere Behrman, Susan Parker, Petra Todd, and Weilong Zhang
  [Paper] [Abstract]
  Mexico introduced a nationwide preschool mandate in 2002 requiring three years of preschool before primary school. Using administrative education records, household survey data, and a regression discontinuity design, this paper estimates medium and long run effects of the reform. The mandate increased math and Spanish test scores in fifth and sixth grade, improved noncognitive skills and student engagement, reduced grade repetition, and raised educational attainment among young adults almost twenty years later. The findings show that high quality universal preschool can generate persistent benefits over the life cycle.
  Media: VoxDev
• Going Big in Health: Effect of a Large-Scale Preventive Health Policy
  with Arturo Aguilar and Adrian Rubli
  [Paper] [Abstract]
  This paper studies how the healthcare component of the Progresa conditional cash transfer program affected healthcare utilization. Exploiting a sharp discontinuity in the program's initial rollout, we estimate a 12 percent increase in outpatient visits to public clinics, driven mainly by children and adults aged 20 to 49. The program improved reproductive health services and chronic disease screening but also increased congestion and reduced self reported quality of care for non beneficiaries. These results show that large scale preventive health policies can generate both important benefits and unintended costs.

Technical Notes

• Extending WID Population Series: Projections 2024-2100, Age & Gender Breakdowns
  with Rowaida Moshrif, Gastón Nievas, Thomas Piketty, and Anmol Somanchi
  World Inequality Lab Technical Note 2024-12
  [Technical Note] [Abstract]
  This technical note presents a comprehensive update to the World Inequality Database (WID) population series. The updated dataset now includes annual total population estimates from 1800 to 2100 for all 216 core countries, incorporating new historical data from the Federico-Tena World Population Historical Database (2025) and future projections based on the UN World Population Prospects (WPP 2024). The series also provides consistent age (0–14, 15–64, 65+, 0–19, 20+) and gender breakdowns over the entire 1800–2100 period for all 216 core countries. All series are now accessible on the World Inequality Database (WID.world).
• Global Inequality Update 2024: New Insights from Extended WID Macro Series
  with Rowaida Moshrif, Gastón Nievas, and Thomas Piketty
  World Inequality Lab Technical Note 2024-11
  [Technical Note] [Abstract]
  This technical note presents new insights on the changing structure of global inequality from the WID macro series 2024 update. We start with some basic results about the structure of national income growth at the global level over the 1800-2023 period. We then analyze the relationship between national income and country size over the 1970-2023 period. We proceed with some simple results on the world's richest and poorest countries in 2023, and finally with the global structure of foreign wealth, foreign income, and trade balance of the 1970-2023 period and with the evolution of public revenue and public spending at the global level during 1980-2023.
• Cyclical and Non-cyclical Factors in the Evolution of Mexico's Labor Participation Rate since 2005
  with León Fernández and Daniel Osuna
  Banco de México. Excerpt from the Quarterly Report April–June 2023, Box 3, pp. 46–51, document published on August 30, 2023
  [Technical Note] [Abstract]
  This study examines the evolution of labor force participation in Mexico since 2005, with a particular focus on differences by sex and age groups. While aggregate participation has remained relatively stable over the period, this stability masks substantial heterogeneity across population groups. Using an econometric model in which participation rates are expressed as a function of key individual and household characteristics, the analysis documents a declining trend in male participation, driven primarily by lower participation among young and older workers. Female participation, although still significantly lower than male participation, exhibits an upward long-run trend that reflects strong generational effects, as successive cohorts of women display higher propensities to participate in the labor market. The results also highlight the role of rising educational attainment and increased scholarship coverage in shaping participation patterns, particularly through delayed labor market entry among younger individuals. Although this has temporarily reduced participation among the youngest age group, the findings suggest positive long-term implications for labor market attachment and productivity.

Policy Writing

• Inequality is a choice: What the World Inequality Report 2026 reveals about our economic moment
  Polity Books, 2026
• La desigualdad no crece sola: la dejamos crecer
  Surcos, 2026
• Mexico's preschool mandate set children up to succeed
  VoxDev, 2024

Previous Working Papers

These papers reflect earlier stages of ongoing research or completed projects no longer under active development.

• Mandatory Preschool and Student Test Scores. Evidence from Mexico
  A later version of this research is available as "From Playtime to Primetime" and "Starting Strong" in the Working Papers section above.
  Recipient of the Joaquín Xirau Icaza Economics Award and the XXIX ExITAM Research Award (honorable mention).
  [Paper] [Abstract]
  Using Mexico's 2002 preschool mandate, this paper estimates the effect of preschool attendance on primary school outcomes. The reform raised test scores by about 0.04 standard deviations four years after implementation through a 2 percentage point increase in preschool enrollment. These gains persisted through the end of elementary school and were similar for girls and boys. The policy increased the share of high skilled teachers while keeping student teacher ratios constant. Mandatory preschool can therefore improve learning outcomes with lasting effects.
  Media: ITAM News
• Is the Bicycle a Substitute for the Automobile? Evidence from Mexico City
  with Amado Crôtte, Jorge Narezo-Balzaretti, and Marc Jacob
  [Paper] [Abstract]
  This paper studies whether bicycles substitute for cars in Mexico City using a natural experiment created by a gasoline shortage in 2019. A difference in differences design using Ecobici bikesharing data shows that trips increased by 4 to 7 per hour during the shortage and remained elevated in the months that followed. One month after the shock, Ecobici usage was still 7 trips per hour higher, and after three to five months it remained 3 trips per hour higher. The results indicate that bicycles are a partial and persistent substitute for automobiles in areas covered by the bikesharing system.
• Evaluation of the Implementation of Metrobus Line 1 on Air Quality in Mexico City
  [Paper] [Abstract]
  Using a difference in differences design, this study evaluates the impact of Mexico City's first Bus Rapid Transit line on air quality. The introduction of Metrobus Line 1 reduced PM2.5, NO, and NOx concentrations by 27 percent, 24 percent, and 15 percent respectively, while PM10 increased by 6 percent. Overall, the reform generated meaningful reductions in the most harmful local air pollutants.

Other Research

• The Effect of GDP and Unemployment on Crime: A Time-Series Analysis
  with Angel Espinoza E
  [Paper] [Abstract]
  This paper estimates the relationship between economic activity and homicide rates in Mexico using a General Dynamic Model in differences. The specification ensures stability, exogeneity, and absence of serial correlation while capturing short and long run dynamics between GDP, unemployment, and crime.
• Marginal cost of additional gasoline and electric vehicles on air quality
  [Paper] [Abstract]
  This study estimates the marginal air pollution costs of additional gasoline and electric vehicles in Mexico City. Electric vehicles generate a much lower marginal cost per person at 0.018 MXN compared with 0.1322 MXN for gasoline vehicles, even after accounting for emissions from electricity generation. However, the spatial redistribution of pollution across regions remains an important policy consideration.